Forex | Forex | Historic inventory cycle to boost growth (03/07/2009 08:44:54)

Historic inventory cycle to boost growth

A key factor behind our above-consensus global growth forecast is our view on the inventory cycle. Our thesis is that, even if the demand recovery is slow during 2009, we will still see a significant production rebound in H2 09. This is the main difference between our forecast and, for example, those of OECD and IMF, which predict a considerably slower and later recovery. The inventory cycle is a very important cyclical driver and in this downturn it has been much more forceful than we have


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